Westpac economists have slashed their 2020 annual GDP forecast from 3.1 per cent to 2.3 per cent, and they expect unemployment will rise over the coming months.

Westpac银行经济学家已将2020年全年GDP预期从3.1%下调至2.3%，并预计未来几个月失业率将上升。

Slash：大幅度削减；大大降低

Adjusting for population changes, annual per capita GDP growth is now just 1.1 per cent, its slowest pace in eight years, Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens writes in his latest Economic Overview.

Westpac银行首席经济学家Dominick Stephens在其最新的《经济概览》（Economic Overview）中写道，经人口变化调整后，目前人均GDP年增长率仅为1.1%，为8年来的最低水平。

Adjust：调整，校准；适应

"We expect the situation to get worse before it gets better, as the escalating US-China trade war makes its mark on global economic growth," Stephens said.

Stephens表示，“随着不断升级的美中贸易战对全球经济增长产生影响，我们预计形势在好转之前会变得更糟。”

Escalate：逐步增强；逐步升高；加剧

He had expected to see the economy turning around from mid-2019 due to low interest rates and increases in Government spending.

他此前曾预计，由于低利率和政府支出的增加，经济将在2019年年中开始好转。

Turn around：转身；使向好的方向转变

"Instead, activity has remained subdued, with recent indicators pointing to quarterly GDP

growth of only around 0.5 per cent through the second half of 2019."

“但相反，经济活动仍然低迷，最近的指标指向季度GDP到2019年下半年，增长率仅为0.5％左右。”

Subdued：（人）闷闷不乐的；（光线或色彩）柔和的；（声音）压低的；（商业活动）冷清的，低迷的

The big change was the deteriorating state of the global economy - due largely to the United States/China trade war - which was now starting to be felt in key New Zealand exports such as milk prices, log prices and international visitor numbers.

最大的变化是全球经济状况的恶化——主要是由于美国和中国之间的贸易战——现在新西兰的主要出口商品，如牛奶价格、原木价格和国际游客数量都开始受到影响。

Deteriorate：恶化，变坏

While the labour market had been resilient to date (with unemployment falling to 3.9 per cent in June) hiring intentions were faltering, Stephens said.

Stephens表示，尽管劳动力市场迄今表现强劲（6月份失业率降至3.9%），但招聘意向正在动摇。

Resilient：可迅速恢复的；有适应力的；有弹性（或弹力）的；能复原的

Falter：踌躇；支吾；颤抖

Westpac forecasts it will rise to 4.2 per cent by the end of the year, with annual GDP bottoming out at 2.1 per cent for 2019.

Westpac预测，到今年年底，这一比例将升至4.2%，2019年全年GDP将触底于2.1%。

Bottom out：降到最低点

Stephens said he remained confident the anticipated recovery would kick in through 2020 with growth rising to 2.7 per cent in 2021.

Stephens表示，他仍然相信，预计到2020年经济将会出现复苏，2021年增长率将上升至2.7%。

Anticipate：预料，预期；预见

But he raised concerns about its sustainability and the risk of another asset bubble.

但他对其可持续性和另一场资产泡沫的风险提出了担忧。

Sustainability：持续性

"The Reserve Bank is riding to the rescue, and we argue that it will be effective," he said.

"Mortgage rates have tumbled, and if further stimulus is required the Reserve Bank has options such as quantitative easing."

他说，“储备银行正在采取拯救行动，我们认为这将是有效的。房贷利率已大幅下降，如果需要进一步的刺激措施，储备银行可以选择量化宽松的政策等。”

Tumble：跌倒；摔倒；倒塌；绊倒

Quantitative：数量的；量化的；定量的

He expected lower rates would "spur asset prices, including an acceleration in house price inflation from around 1 per cent now to 7 per cent next year."

他预计，降息将“刺激资产价格，包括将房价通胀从目前的1%左右加速至明年的7%。”

Spur：激励；促进

Acceleration：加速，促进

Combined with expanded government spending, that would shore up GDP growth, he said.

But propping up growth in this manner deepened the longer-term risks in the economy.

他说，再加上政府支出的扩大，这将支撑GDP的增长。但以这种方式支撑经济增长加剧了经济的长期风险。

Shore up / Prop up：支持，支撑；加固

"New Zealand is locked in a cycle of economic growth driven by ever-lower interest rates causing ever-higher asset prices, facilitated by ever-increasing household debt. This cycle can't last forever, and when it ends things could turn ugly."

“新西兰陷入了一个经济增长的循环，利率越来越低导致资产价格越来越高，而不断增加的家庭债务也助长了这一趋势。这种循环不可能永远持续下去，当它结束时，情况可能会变得糟糕。”

Facilitate：促进；帮助

记得复习呀：

【读新闻学英语】持刀伤人嫌犯就这样逃离了新西兰？

【读新闻学英语】Lime要出新踏板车啦，更大更结实，一起来先睹为快吧

【读新闻学英语】北岸大桥将改造成双层18车道？奥克兰市长候选人的这个提议你支持么？

【读新闻学英语】男子不仅家暴女友还给宠物猫喂冰毒，这是什么恶魔？

【读新闻学英语】新西兰首家7天24小时营业的超市开业了，地址就在……

注：本文为新西兰先驱报中文网编译/原创，欢迎转发分享；但严禁复制等未经授权的非法使用。违反上述声明者，本网将追究其相关法律责任。使用授权请联系[email protected]。

chineseherald.co.nz All Rights Reserved 版权所有

(责编：twinkle)

来源 - 新西兰先驱报中文网