Adjusting for population changes, annual per capita GDP growth is now just 1.1 per cent, its slowest pace in eight years, Westpac chief economist Dominick Stephens writes in his latest Economic Overview.
He had expected to see the economy turning around from mid-2019 due to low interest rates and increases in Government spending.
"Instead, activity has remained subdued, with recent indicators pointing to quarterly GDP
growth of only around 0.5 per cent through the second half of 2019."
The big change was the deteriorating state of the global economy - due largely to the United States/China trade war - which was now starting to be felt in key New Zealand exports such as milk prices, log prices and international visitor numbers.
He expected lower rates would "spur asset prices, including an acceleration in house price inflation from around 1 per cent now to 7 per cent next year."
Combined with expanded government spending, that would shore up GDP growth, he said.
But propping up growth in this manner deepened the longer-term risks in the economy.
Shore up / Prop up：支持，支撑；加固
"New Zealand is locked in a cycle of economic growth driven by ever-lower interest rates causing ever-higher asset prices, facilitated by ever-increasing household debt. This cycle can't last forever, and when it ends things could turn ugly."